GBC midterm poll suggests shift in voting intentions but still all to play for

A midterm poll, conducted by GBC with Mediatel, suggests a significant swing - in voting intentions - to the GSD, but it’s still all to play for ahead of the next election due to the many who don’t know how they’d vote.

At the midway point in the electoral cycle, we asked over 1,000 respondents about their voting intentions in face-to-face interviews over nine days earlier this month.

A full 26.48% of respondents don’t know which party they’d vote for if a general election were held tomorrow. With two years until another General Election is due, it could be won by either party. But the poll shows there is a shift away from the GSLP-Liberals at 20.47% and towards the GSD, who were backed by 28.52% of respondents.

The 14.45% who said they’d split their votes represent people who do not intend to adhere to block voting - a lower number than the 18.68% of respondents who reported split voting at the 2023 election. It is not clear how those votes would be split. The ‘neither’ would be disregarded. 

Our poll suggests there would be a strong turnout: 77.69% would be likely or very likely to vote.

Among those polled, there is a significant swing to the GSD. Those polled voted 35.43% for the GSLP-Liberals and 21.59% for the GSD in 2023.

23.04% say they didn’t vote, and again we don’t know how the 18.68% split their votes.  

Taken with the answers to what party they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow, we can say there's a 6.94% increase in the GSD vote and a 14.96% decrease in the GSLP-Liberals’ vote share among those polled.

26.28% are very satisfied or satisfied with the Government, 30.16% are neutral and 43.55% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the Government. 

18.23% are very satisfied or satisfied with the Opposition, 42.48% are neutral and 39.29% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the Opposition. 

Government performance divides opinion. More people are satisfied with the Government than with the Opposition. But, more people are also very dissatisfied with the Government, compared to the Opposition. 

Both can take some encouragement from the large % of neutrals, who they may be able to sway with a perceived improvement in performance over the next two years.

Presented with candidates for Chief Minister, by far the most popular answer was ‘other’: on 24.39%. 

This could entice anyone watching from the sidelines who sees themselves as a political leader but is waiting for the right moment to take the plunge. It also suggests a lack of enthusiasm among our respondents towards the current crop of politicians.

Of the named politicians, the GSLP-Liberal leader Fabian Picardo emerges as the most popular choice with 15.49%. The GSD’s Damon Bossino places second, not far behind on 14.42%.

The GSLP-Liberal’s Gemma Arias-Vasquez and the GSD Leader Keith Azopardi are tied third on 11.52%.  

All other candidates attract portions of support below 6 %.

Nigel Feetham will be glad he’s next in fifth, but disappointed - as a would-be leader of the GSLP - to be so far back on 5.23%, with fewer than half Ms Arias-Vasquez’s (the other contender to be Mr Picardo’s successor).

Health is the most concerning issue for those polled. 

Education is next, followed by finances, then housing, then cleanliness. 

Environment/Development is next, followed by Treaty, then Transparency, then Style of Government and finally Equality.

The question asked ‘What are the most concerning issues for you?’

We also asked how much would certain issues influence our respondents’ votes, and the EU Treaty negotiations came top with 59.07% saying ‘A lot’ and 38.22% saying ‘Somewhat’.

The Government’s record on housing and the Principal Auditor’s Report were next.

42.1% say the Government’s record on housing would influence their vote ‘A lot’. 38.22% say housing would influence their vote ‘somewhat’.

41.61% say the Principal Auditor’s Report would influence their vote ‘A lot’. 38.12% say the report would influence their vote ‘somewhat’.

Of the four issues listed, the McGrail Inquiry would influence voting the least, among our respondents. 27.48% say the inquiry would influence their vote ‘A lot’, 36.21% said it would influence their vote ‘Somewhat’, and 36.31% said ‘Not at all’.

As a result of the 2023 general election, the GSLP-Liberals currently have nine MPs, to the GSD’s eight MPs. In Gibraltar’s first past the post system, it’s the party that gets nine candidates first who forms Government. 

Our poll listed all the MPs currently in Parliament and asked the respondents to say - if an election were held tomorrow - who would they vote for.

Damon Bossino leads here on 34.98%- followed by Gemma Arias Vasquez on 33.53%  and Craig Sacarello on 32.17% - Keith Azopardi, Joseph Garcia and Nigel Feetham follow.

It suggests the GSD’s eight MPs would get voted into Parliament, with the GSLP-Liberals having four candidates with a lower score than the worst scoring GSD candidate. Our poll suggests Sir Joe Bossano is the alliance candidate most at risk of not being voted back in, followed by Pat Orfila, then Leslie Bruzon, then John Cortes.

This question is designed to see who of the current MPs would likely get back into Parliament and who would be more at risk. Although it's not known who will stand at the next election-it's interesting to see how individual candidates are performing at this midterm junction.

The Appetite for new candidates remains with the choice of 'other' taking the biggest percentage of 37.5%.